Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Debt-laden states, Debt-laden people, and where to go from here . . .

Well, that was fast. California went into the toilet right on schedule, not passing the budget they needed. Now, banks are downgrading their bonds to 'BBB' status (Check out cnn.com/business for that story) and it turns out that a bunch of major banks, including Bank of America and Citi, are not going to accept their IOU's. Meanwhile, the economy has decided that it kinda liked being in the toilet right along with California, thank you very much, and has responded accordingly by shedding a ridiculous amount of jobs and 300 points off the stock market in two days. To make things even MORE interesting, oil is now a full $10 cheaper per barrel than it was a week ago. Also, it turns out that Americans are charging things left, right, and down the middle - only now, it's not cashmere sweaters from Nordstrom, steak dinners at Morton's, and down-payments on new SUV's. We are now using our charge cards (those of us still lucky to have them) to pay for stuff like gas, groceries, and our insurance bills.

THE CONSUMER FREAK-OUT INDEX

You've got to hand it to ABC News. Their R&D department are AWESOME at tracking just how crappy everyone's lives are across this great nation. Check out what I'm terming the 'Consumer Freak-Out Index' at http://abcnews.go.com/Business/page?id=7613976. This little ditty measures just how stressed out Americans are by county, using indicators like foreclosures, unemployment, etc. essentially, if you're over 18 on the index, your county is in full-blown freak out mode.

What does all this have to do with Peak Oil, you ask? EVERYTHING.

So American consumers from Seattle to San Diego and from Portland, Maine down to Key West are on edge. California, Arizona, New York, and Illinois, among other states, are edging closer to bankruptcy. The U.S. Dollar, ladies and gents, is the currency that sets oil. Our fiat-based monetary system is so stressed right now, that all it's going to take is one last straw in the right place at the right time and the kind of panic that is usually reserved for a Jerry Bruckheimer flick is going to set in. Imagine if all of the sudden, inflation starts to REALLY start to kick in. Demand for oil is going to be irrelevant. The price will rise; and of course, the companies will only be to happy to pass the costs on down to you.

A continuous conversation regarding the economy is going on right now at the highest levels of government. I continue to hope for President Obama and his government to succeed, especially with the addition of the new Junior Senator from Minnesota on board. The sad thing is, to paraphrase Bill Maher, I still have audacity. It's my hope that eroding. So many people I am friends with are already writing the Obama presidency's obituary, using the words of the old U.S.S.R., meet the new boss - same as the old boss. And to a certain extent, I think that they're right. You can't expect, even coming in with the poll numbers he had, to rock out that kind of agenda in the face of this economic doomsday.

The question now becomes, at what point does our government throw its collective hands up in the air and say, "We're broke! We can't do this crap anymore!!" The day is coming, and soon at that, when we're going to be forced to say that. When it does come to pass, think about our daily oil imports, paid for with loans. We have enough oil in the strategic reserve to keep us afloat for approximately 30 days, assuming stable demand. At the end of that 30 days, then the real fun begins.

I'm am beyond nervous about this current financial morass and what it means for our society. The aftershocks from last summer's oil quake are still reverberating today. I just wonder how long they continue before something REALLY big happens.

p.s. I'm attaching the slideshow that we presented here in Fort Lauderdale regarding out Post-Petroleum scenario. It's more rosy than I would have liked it to be, but we were told to be optimistic. Enjoy.