Post-Petroleum Aviation: Can Airlines Survive Oil's Decline?

Something our research is looking at right now:  The teetering airline industry.  Looking around on the internet, few industries (save agriculture) are in a worse position right now to deal with a decline in oil production than aviation.  Jet-A1 kerosene (totally petroleum-based) makes up most of their fuel production.  Just to begin stepping away from this is a task that would make sweeping the Aegean Stables look like cleaning up a bit of spilled milk.  

According to aviation watchdog groups like the UK's Aviation Environment Group, biofuels are what airlines have tapped to produce the lion's share of future fuel, with a 30% share expected by 2030.  While this goal is admirable in its intention, AEG and other watchdog groups say that this is nothing more than a misguided attempt by the industry to maintain themselves in the increasing pressure of a Green Economy.  

Estimates put forth by AEG in "Bio-Fueled or Bio-Fooled" (Google it; it's worth a read) indicate that to replace all of the fuel used in the aviation industry today - and please keep in mind, that's assuming NO change in demand, for better or worse - it would take 1.4 billion hectares of land.  To put in in slightly plainer language, that is more than 5.4 million square miles; that is more than half the size of the entire land mass of the continent of North America.  The land that we are talking about would, of course, take the place of farm land, thus driving up food costs considerably; therefore, in the view of many practitioners and planners like myself and my colleagues, bio-fuels truly are simply a band-aid fix.

Also mentioned prominently is the Gas-to-Liquid method that coal and natural gas companies are pushing, in the hopes that they can stop their slide into irrelevance.  They point out that the Fischer-Tropsch method harnessed by Hitler's war machine in Nazi Germany is a proven product that could replace a large percentage of oil as a liquid fuel.  What they don't mention is the inconvenient little fact that switching over to a GTL fuel majority share would lead to an approximately 80% increase in greenhouse gas emissions, as noted by a study at Princeton University in 2006.  I don't think that I need to point out that an 80% increase in greenhouse gas emissions is not a good thing, even if it does let us take that nonstop flight from Miami to London.

The question, of course, is what direction does the airline industry take to alleviate its fuel concerns?  Well, the answer is that, short of minimizing service and flying smaller, more fuel efficient aircraft, there is no answer.  In the future, our scenario construction sees the entire process of air travel dwindling down to a minimal level.  Ships once ruled the oceans; and we see them doing so again.  Examples of solar sails (www.solarsailor.com) and even regular old cloth sail ships returning are starting to show up.  Other alternatives, especially in regional travel, are the upcoming high-speed rail lines and corridors linking important areas around the country.

Ultimately, a scaled-down version of the airline system currently in place will most likely come to pass.  Because of their large, powerful lobby and the fact that the world has yet to begin the slowdown process that we hope will ultimately save us, airlines will continue to be a factor in transportation.  It bears reminding, however, that this industry is one major fuel crisis away from complete disaster.

Our Petro-Lifestyles & Our Healthcare System: More Similar than you'd think!

Today in Washington, D.C., President Obama and members of his cabinet are getting together with people on both sides of the current healthcare system.  As was pointed out by Rick Klein in his column today on ABCNews.com (Link below), parties on both sides recognize that the situation we're in right now (i.e. costs spiraling out of control, corporate lobbies running the show, etc)  and feel something needs to be done.  The trouble, of course, is trying to come to a consensus on what, exactly, should be done.  

Does all of this sound familiar?  If you have paid any attention at all to the back and forth among policy makers and advocacy groups in the argument over energy, it should sound very familiar.  Right now, even oil companies (though at their own snail-like pace) are admitting that new sources of energy need to be examined, even if they are still in the business of reassuring us that America can keep on using oil for 150 years without running out.  People recognize that the United States uses petroleum at a rate that is absolutely unsustainable, given the current global conditions.  The problem remains how to deal with the use, what alternatives are viable and practical, and how best to get this country (with its notoriously short attention span and reluctance to change) headed in the right direction.

In our current healthcare system, if you don't have insurance, you're either out of luck or you're paying through the nose to get the care you need.  In our current petroleum system, if you don't have enough money, you can't buy a hybrid or solar panels for your home.  Moreover, a certain element of society thinks that this is not a problem and would really like to see things continue in this vain.  They see healthcare and our petro-lifestyle as market driven.  As much as they say that they empathize with those who suffer (whether it be in the hospital or when they open up their energy bill), they continue to repeat the Reaganomics mantra of trickle-down, tax cuts, the market will solve everything, etc.

The time has come, however, as with the healthcare summit, to start to focus forward, erasing the mistakes and failed policies of the last 8 years.  President Obama sees the need to bring these parties to the table with healthcare because the industry, as loathsome as it is sometimes, still holds  a very tight grip on the way things get done in Washington.  The oil companies (or as some of them are now calling themselves, the 'Energy' companies) on the other hand, have been weakened by the combination of last summer's oil spike, the ridiculously massive profits they reaped during that time, and the ad campaigns they are running that all but the most gullible American sees as a ploy to not let the Big Bad Government eat them up.  

The opportunity to hold an energy summit, like this healthcare summit, is here, now.  We must act quickly and decisively if we are to act on the initiative of the First 100 days of the new administration.  As the old blacksmith's saying goes, "Strike while the iron is hot."  Doing so will set the energy policy that we need to begin our long, hard journey away from fossil fuels; and the sooner we get started, the better.

The NEW and IMPROVED Blue Dog Rising is here!

Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you for your patience with Blue Dog Rising.  I've decided to change direction and turn this blog into the voice for Post-Petroleum life on this planet; and you're all invited to join in.

So the questions begin . . .

What will Post-Petroleum America and the world look like?  Will it be the apocalyptic world of Mad Max and The Postman?  Or will it be the optimistic views of friends of mine where all of our problems are solved and we live happily ever after?  What will we use for fuel without oil?  Where will be live?  How will we cope with these problems?  

We will be discussing these questions and more on this page for the foreseeable future.  Any comments, concerns, questions, quips, etc (to paraphrase one of my favorite professors) are welcome and encouraged.  I will be posting links to interesting articles and suggesting books and authors for my audience (and here's to hoping that there is an audience for this) to check out.

So to begin with, here are a few books you should look at, if you haven't already.  Each of these addresses, in some facet, the growing problem of Peak Oil and how it can and will change the way we live our lives:

The Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook:  Recipes for Changing Times by Albert Bates

The Party's Over:  Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies  by Richard Heinberg

Twilight in the Desert:  The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy  by Matthew Simmons

Stay tuned to this blog for future posts including news items and writings of our Post-Petroleum Planning group!